Top 25th Percentile Customers by Unrealized Sales
Customers in the top 25th percentile of Unrealized Sales.
Who’s in This Segment
A customer is in this segment when their Unrealized Sales percentile is 75 or higher.
Every customer who has ordered gets a percentile from 1 (lowest) to 100 (highest) for their Unrealized Sales, ranked against your other customers who have ordered. Customers with no orders get no percentile, so they’re never in this segment.
Percentile 75 or higher is about the top 26% of the customers who have ordered. Customers with the same Unrealized Sales share one percentile, and a tied group is in this segment only when all of it fits. So the segment can hold fewer customers than that, or none.
Most customers who have ordered have zero Unrealized Sales: everyone whose time since their last order has passed their group’s average lifespan. In most stores that is over 75% of them. They all tie at the bottom, so none of them are in this segment.
Unrealized Sales is the part of a customer’s LTV they haven’t spent yet: LTV minus Total Sales, never less than zero.
LTV is the customer’s Total Sales so far plus an estimate of what they’ll spend from here. The estimate multiplies three things:
- their average order value
- the median number of orders placed by customers in the same loyalty group
- the years left before the time since their last order reaches that group’s average lifespan, never less than zero
A group’s average lifespan is the average time between its customers’ first and last orders.
Orders that were canceled, or whose payment was voided or expired, don’t count toward any of this.
Membership is worked out again each time your customer data refreshes, so customers move in and out of the segment on their own.
What to Do With It
The customers with the most expected spending still ahead of them. Focus retention campaigns here, where keeping a customer is worth the most.
To use the segment outside By the Numbers, open it from the Customer Segments page and choose Sync under Sync Destinations. You can send it to Klaviyo, Mailchimp or Attentive for email and SMS, or to Meta, Google Ads, TikTok or Reddit Ads as an audience.
Auto-sync is on by default and resends the segment every 2–4 days, depending on the platform, so the audience keeps matching it. Sync now sends it straight away.
Inside By the Numbers, you can also apply the segment as a filter on reports to see how these customers buy.
Where to Find It
- Customer Segments: this segment is on the Preset Segments tab. Open it to see who’s in it, how it’s trending and where it syncs.
- Customer Loyalty: how your customers spread across loyalty groups by how recently and how often they buy.
- How to Create a Custom Segment: build your own version of this segment with different rules.